This Will Confirm The Gold Bull Market
The comments below are an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Hubert Moolman
Gold is moving closer to confirming a multi-year bull market, according to Moolman’s long-term comparison. A decisive move higher than the $1,375 area would be confirmation of the bull.
Moolman has marked two fractals (patterns) on a Comex futures chart to show how they might be similar. He has also marked the point where interest rates peaked (in 1981), and where they bottomed (in 2016).
If the comparison with the 1980s pattern is justified, and the current pattern continues in a similar fashion, then gold will continue in a long bear market.
A breakout at the top red line (the high at point 5 – $1,375) would almost certainly signal or confirm the bull market. This would be divergence from the 1980s pattern, and likely cause prices to rise quickly once the breakout is confirmed.
A breakdown at the bottom red line could mean that prices will continue to follow the 1980s pattern and go lower than $1,000. That would mean we will have to wait many years for the next gold bull market (very unlikely).
Moolman believes that, because the early 1980s pattern occurred around a long-term interest rate peak and the current one around an interest rate bottom, the two exist in completely different economic conditions.
The current economic conditions are ideal for higher gold prices, and this is what we will likely get over the next couple of years.