Predictions for the 2020s
The comments below are an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Dmitry Orlov
“While many commentators see fit to publish their predictions for the year ahead, I find a single year to be too fine-grained for any meaningful forecast. For me, plus or minus five years is about the right size of the error bars to place on any prediction with regard to timing, making it possible to time any major change to within a couple of decades. And it just so happens that another decade has gone by since I published my last set of predictions for the United States in the 2010s, and it is therefore time to come up with a new set, for the 2020s.”
“My last set of predictions worked out moderately well. Although in some cases the process has not run its course, the trends are all unmistakable and the processes I outlined should be expected to continue and, in some cases, to run to completion within the new decade. But this time around I will attempt to make more specific predictions.”
Orlov discusses economics, military matters, and politics.