Gold Could Soar 80% to $6,000 If There’s Even A Minuscule Shift Away from US Assets, Analysts Say
The comments below are an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Jason Ma
JPMorgan Forecasts Gold at $6,000 by 2029 Amid Shifting Global Investment Trends
JPMorgan analysts have projected a potential surge in the price of gold to $6,000 per ounce by 2029, representing an 80% increase from the current price of approximately $3,300. This bullish forecast is grounded in the assumption that just 0.5% of US assets held by foreign investors are reallocated into gold. The bank highlights the limited growth in gold supply, suggesting that even small shifts in demand can result in significant price increases.
Gold has experienced strong upward momentum in recent years, driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical forces. A significant turning point occurred in 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to widespread financial sanctions and the freezing of its dollar and euro reserves. This triggered a shift among central banks globally, prompting increased gold purchases as a hedge against similar future risks.
Further fueling gold’s rise are high inflation, growing fiscal deficits, and a declining trust in US assets. JPMorgan analysts point to the political and economic disruptions initiated during President Donald Trump’s previous administration—including a trade war and criticism of the Federal Reserve—which undermined investor confidence in US financial stability. The Trump administration’s push for “burden sharing” among countries reliant on the US dollar as a reserve currency also raised concerns among foreign investors, increasing the appeal of gold as an alternative reserve asset.
JPMorgan calculates that a 0.5% reallocation of foreign-held US assets into gold would inject approximately $273.6 billion into the gold market over four years, equating to roughly 2,500 metric tons. While this represents only 3% of global gold holdings, the firm stresses that the incremental demand per quarter would have a significant impact on pricing.
This scenario underpins JPMorgan’s broader bullish stance on gold. The firm recently predicted that gold would hit $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025 and surpass $4,000 by Q2 2026. Similarly, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target to $3,700, noting potential spikes up to $4,500 under extreme conditions.
These forecasts underscore growing uncertainty surrounding the US economy’s global dominance and investor hesitancy toward US dollar-based assets. As central banks and institutional investors seek safer, more resilient stores of value, gold is increasingly seen as a strategic refuge.
JPMorgan’s note concludes that even a modest shift in asset allocation could have profound effects on gold pricing.
