Bridging The ‘Fourth Turning’ with Gold
The comments below are an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Michael Kosares
The Fourth Turning (1997, William Strauss and Neil Howe) predicted much of what has happened in the US over the past 20 years.
Howe said the current fourth turning would begin in 2008. Since turnings typically last 20-23 years, it will end between 2028 and 2031; that puts us about midway through the cycle. At the moment, if the politicians, Wall Street and press accounts on the status of the economy are to be believed, the good times are here. For many Americans, though, there are deep political divisions, escalating trade wars, emerging nations debt and currency crises, an overvalued stock market, and the threat of rising interest rates. That is just a sampling of fourth-turning strata that worries global investors. Howe believes things could get much worse before they get better.
Kosares believes that a resolution will be found, but his concern is getting across the bridge between the ‘final season of history’ and its ultimate resolution. That is why he owns gold and why he thinks that every investor should own it as well. The name of the game is to protect wealth and not leave the results of your life’s work on the table as the fourth turning moves into its final phases.
A diversification of 10% to 30% will get the job done, as it did in the first phases of the crisis from 2008 to 2009. How high you go within that range depends upon on how strongly you feel about the dangers that lie ahead.
