GoldFix: Analyst Price Predictions for 2021
The comments below are an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Vince Lanci
“The compiled predictions by various sell-side banks and analyst firms is presented in this 3rd-party piece for your perusal. Beyond the snapshot of these annual predictions, it is helpful to have some context of past prognostications. We note there is little disagreement among the banks with investment clients this year. Usually there is one bank which predicts a much lower number for whatever reason. That not being the case this year, it might imply something about their client base and prop trading book positions. Sometimes it helps to focus on analyst changes as the year progresses. We suggest keeping this bookmarked (or a snapshot of the table) as a reference to see how bank and/or analyst predictions change in response to market action. Changes are often telling of bias and new orderflow. Not unlike stock analysts upgrading Tesla price targets after it goes up, how some firm analysts react to price moves is their ‘job security gamma’ being hedged. If gold goes up, see who upgrades their price higher fastest and the most. If the year progresses and gold does not breach any of these levels, see who downgrades their prediction first or last. Frequently taken as a whole, these types of changes can give you an idea how seriously to take the reports offered. We hope to discuss these on the GoldFix broadcast as they change over time.”
Jeff Clark, senior analyst at HardAssetsAlliance.com, discusses why most price forecasts aren’t worth more than an umbrella in a hurricane; the golden crystal ball; Q4 performance of major asset classes; and the golden path (factors Clark believes will have the most influence on the gold price this year).