The Everything Bubble Has Found Its Pin. The Pin’s Name Is Jerome Powell
The comments below are an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Graham Summers
The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. As such, it is the currency of choice for issuing debt. Entities around the globe will often choose to issue debt denominated in the dollar, even if the dollar is not a currency used in their economy.
When you borrow money in US dollars, you are effectively shorting it. You are betting that the dollar will weaken, making your debt servicing cheaper on a relative basis.
When the dollar strengthens, it becomes more difficult to service your debt. This is true even for the US itself. The $20 trillion it owes in public debt is effectively one gigantic $20 trillion US dollar short.
Enter Jerome Powell. The Powell Fed has decided to embark on the most aggressively hawkish monetary policy in Fed history, and the currency markets have taken note. The dollar is breaking out of downtrends in every single currency.
Assuming Powell doesn’t want to blow up the $60-trillion dollar-denominated debt bubble, the chart included here screams ‘policy error.’
The last time the dollar rallied against every major currency was in 2014. At that time, the entire commodity complex imploded by over 60%, and emerging markets came within a hair’s breadth of systemic collapse.
Within six months of the dollar’s rally in 2014, Brazil’s stock market was down nearly 70%. China’s was down nearly 50%. Emerging markets across the board dropped over 30%. Oil fell from $105 to $30.
So, buckle up. The everything bubble has found its pin, and the pin’s name is Jerome Powell.