The Charts Bulls and Bears Are Obsessing Over For 2019
The comments below are an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Tyler Durden
Last year, 2017, was a tough year for many investors who had to keep chasing the non-correcting ascent.
This year, 2018, has turned out to be a year for Wall Street to be wrong on everything; the year when the warning signs finally did
And now, 2019 is shaping up to be a testing year for the world economy. The biggest concern heading into the year is the resumption of trade concerns (Brexit, implications of US political brinksmanship; EM outflows/destabilization; Italy; oil price spikes), which is/are expected to weigh on growth.
Bears argue that the US and China have a temporary truce to their trade war, but the peace won’t hold. Bulls argue that there’s a deal to be done, that China and the US will come to an agreement that allows greater access to China’s markets.
Durden discusses the oil glut; central banks; liquidity becoming more expensive; prices sinking; Europe (Italy) turning negative; the Brexit fallout; and debt and interest rates in 2019.
US growth may slow sharply, meaning a less buoyant global economy. However, the Fed will not just have to pause; it will have to stop hiking altogether—and trade war concerns will have to come true—which brings us full circle to the start of this summary.