Stocks Drop 1,000 Points On Black Friday! Why, And Now What?
The comments below are an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
The stock market had its worst day of the year on November 26, Black Friday, in half-day trading. It was the high momentum decline we have been watching for as evidence that the top is in for the stock market. The Industrials fell 1,000 points intraday, closing down 905. The S&P 500 closed down 106. The Nasdaq 100 lost 342, and the Russell 2000 gave up 85. Trannies got hit for 610.
US bonds responded with a nearly 3-point rise, oil plunged 13%, and the VIX exploded higher by 50%—all in one day.
The stock market declined sharply between November and March in nine of the past thirteen years (70% of the years). This is likely to occur again into early 2022.
We are setting up for a bear market that will include multiple plunges and crashes along the way. This collective of finished bearish patterns, completed Elliott Wave mappings, overbought conditions, overextended rallies, extreme positive sentiment, negative cycle occurrences, advance/decline line bearish divergences and Hindenburg Omens is one of the most ominous that McHugh can recall in the 30 years he has been doing technical analysis stock market forecasting. The stock market has a language of its own, and it is telling us where it is headed. Markets are the accumulation of all the knowledge on planet earth, which is built into pricing. That pricing forms patterns, and creates indicators that we can study to understand what the market is telling us about its future.
The stock market is headed lower. The short-term path for the Industrials is shown within, where they decline in stairstep fashion. The eventual wave ii bounce, perhaps coming in December, will provide the last opportunity for bulls to get out whole, and for bears to load up. Then it gets ugly for a long time. Wave threes down are the worst, most dramatic, loss periods for stocks, and should be here in early 2022.