A Complete Paradigm Shift Will Make Gold The Generational Trade
The comments below are an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Michael Kosares
This month, often a daunting one for financial markets, sees the same toxic mix that has plagued the global economy for most of 2020 in full force: the pandemic, the crippled economy, the money printing, the politics. Gold held up under the pressure of a September consolidation, but the selling waned, buying returned, and it went back over $1,900. Gold has been in the forefront for most of 2020, prompting some to proclaim the launch of a new leg in its long-term secular bull market.
Wall Street-based billionaire and financier Thomas Kaplan says that gold remains, in the west, probably the most under-owned, least-crowded trade in the global financial markets. The next leg up, he believes, will be driven by names like Buffett, El-Erian, Mobius, Dalio, Gundlach and Rogoff.
The market is ready for the next leg of the gold bull. The first leg went up 12 consecutive years in a row, regardless of whether there were inflation or deflation fears, a glut of oil or a shortage, political stability or instability, dollar weakness or strength. The next move will be a long wave that lasts for 10 or 15 years, maybe more. We may be looking at a complete paradigm shift that will make gold the generational trade.
Kaplan goes on to say that gold will reach $3,000 to $5,000 in the years to come, a restatement of a prediction he made several months ago before gold launched the latest leg in its bull market. In addition to the 12 consecutive years of gains, gold has finished higher in 16 of the last 20 years. Gold’s 24.45% advance through the end of September is the fifth-best since 2000 and takes into account the recent consolidation from the all-time high of $2,065.
Up for discussion: Nobel laureate says the public should not be worried about the national debt; Bridgewater sees a unique role for gold in protecting portfolios; how much gold you should own; the coming age of disorder; and when money dies, gold comes into its own.