Gold Price Could Double in 5—10 Years as Investors Become Skeptical of Fiat Currencies – Thorsten Polleit
The comments below are an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Neils Christensen, KITCO News
The July core Consumer Price Index showed an annual rise of 3.1%, underscoring continued inflation pressures for consumers. Yet, according to economist Thorsten Polleit, this figure represents only a fraction of a larger and more persistent challenge: the erosion of purchasing power across all fiat currencies. In his view, this fundamental issue is a key driver of the long-term gold market outlook.
Speaking with Kitco News, Polleit, an Honorary Professor of Economics at the University of Bayreuth and publisher of the Boom & Bust Report, argued that gold and silver are approaching major structural breakouts fuelled by the unchecked expansion of the paper money system. He highlighted growing scepticism about fiat currencies worldwide, noting that investors are actively seeking safe-haven assets. This is reflected in gold’s performance—holding above $3,300 an ounce, reaching record highs against the Japanese yen, and near-record levels versus the euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc.
Polleit pointed out that global debt is rising across all major economies—not just in the US, but also in the UK, Canada, and Europe. This mounting debt, he said, is a significant driver of inflation. Raising interest rates in such an environment is nearly impossible, as it would increase debt servicing costs and slow economic growth. Instead, Polleit anticipates that central banks will cut rates this year, alongside the possible re-emergence of financial repression and even yield curve controls.
Financial repression involves governments subtly reducing their debt burden by maintaining low interest rates and encouraging inflation, effectively transferring costs to the private sector. According to Polleit, the US Federal Reserve’s relatively neutral stance in the first half of the year may soon give way to rate cuts. Market expectations already include a 25-basis-point reduction next month and potentially two further cuts before year’s end.
Despite these expectations, yields on 10-year notes remain elevated above 4%, reflecting investor demand for higher returns amid growing debt. Polleit sees this as temporary, suggesting that yields are unlikely to surpass 5%. He believes the Fed hopes that lowering short-term rates will also reduce long-term yields. If that fails, he predicts central banks may return to bond purchases, which could further support the gold market outlook.
Once long-term yields drop, Polleit expects gold to appreciate further, driven by strong momentum and potential. He foresees significant gains by the end of the year, with a possibility of gold doubling over the next five to ten years. This, he argues, reflects the enduring demand for tangible stores of value in a world where fiat currency purchasing power is steadily weakening.
Polleit’s analysis reinforces the idea that the gold market outlook is shaped not only by inflation data but also by deeper, structural forces: rising debt, central bank policy shifts, and investor behaviour in the face of currency debasement. In his assessment, these factors make precious metals a compelling long-term asset for protecting wealth.
