Trump’s Tariff Threats Shake Silver Markets; Gold Poised for H2 2025 Rally – TD Securities
The comments below are an edited and abridged synopsis of an article by Ernest Hoffman, KITCO
(505 words, 3 minutes read time.)
The silver and gold markets are experiencing notable shifts, with potential implications for investors. TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist, Daniel Ghali, highlighted the massive impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats on silver stocks and shared an optimistic outlook for gold in the second half of 2025.
Disruption in Silver Markets
Ghali emphasized that silver markets are undergoing significant disruption due to traders hedging against the risk of universal tariffs on metals. “Over the last month, there’s been a huge disruption where the threat of tariffs is leading traders to move physical silver from global vaults, particularly in London, to the US,” he said.
The implications are severe. A potential “stock-out” in London’s silver vaults, the world’s largest metal storage system, could destabilize silver markets. This depletion of physical inventory threatens the structure of over-the-counter transactions, creating the conditions for explosive price movements.
“With four consecutive years of substantial deficits in silver, this trend of inventory depletion was already set. Tariff threats are simply accelerating the process,” Ghali noted. He expects silver to respond positively, with TD Securities forecasting a price of $40 per ounce by year-end.
Gold’s Second-Half Rally
Turning to gold, Ghali believes the yellow metal will see renewed momentum in the latter half of the year as the US Federal Reserve resumes its rate-cutting cycle. While gold has been range-bound due to a pause in Fed action and lingering macro fund positions, Ghali sees opportunities for growth later in 2025.
“Gold prices could benefit from renewed central bank buying and increased retail and institutional demand from Asia, driven by currency depreciation pressures,” he explained. These factors, combined with inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, position gold for a strong rally in the second half of the year.
Diverging Yet Interlinked Gold And Silver Markets
While silver’s industrial demand—particularly from the solar energy sector—creates unique market dynamics, Ghali argues for a recoupling of silver and gold prices. Silver’s current undervaluation relative to gold suggests significant upside potential, with long-term gains likely to mirror gold’s performance.
Current Market Trends
Silver is grappling with resistance at $30.30, struggling to break past this level in recent sessions. Spot gold, meanwhile, has shown resilience, trading around $2,655 per ounce, with signs of upward momentum.
Investment Opportunities
For investors, Ghali’s insights offer actionable perspectives:
- Silver: Watch for a breakout above $30.30, which could signal a sharp rally toward $40 per ounce.
- Gold: Focus on accumulating positions ahead of the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts in H2 2025.
The interplay between Trump’s policies, global economic shifts, and evolving market dynamics underscores the need for a strategic approach to precious metals investing this year. As silver navigates potential stock-outs and gold prepares for a bullish run, both metals present compelling opportunities in 2025.
